I’m writing this as I’ve just recently made one of the hardest decision in my life. I still don’t know what the outcome is, but I’m starting to see the outcome unveiling before my eyes. I’ll share in a future post about this decision, but for now, I wanted to emphasize the first rule of decision making: ” **Never Judge a Decision by its Outcome **”
Joe realized he has cancer.
From his diagnosis:
-if he undergo surgery, he has 90% chance of surviving and 10% chance of dying
-if he refuse the surgery, he can live for only a year before the cancer kills him
Considering the expected value of the undergoing a surgery, he chose to do it.
.
.
.
However he died from the operation.
Was that a bad decision ? or a good decision that led to a bad outcome.
a good poker hand that lead to a big lost
a business decision that has plenty of risk in failing
a career change that led to a misery
Distinguish those decisions from its outcome, evaluate them separately, and learn to make better one next time. (Of course, if there’s a next decision to be made, in Joe’s case by the time he realized the good decision and the bad outcome, he might not be able to make another one).